Tuesday is Election Day for all 140 seats of the Virginia General Assembly—as well as for a number of local offices statewide. It’s the first election held after this year’s redistricting of legislative boundaries, and some displaced incumbents have even moved into different districts to try to retain a seat. But partisan control of the upper chamber will depend on electoral outcomes in a SMALL minority of districts.
With only 37 contested House seats, the GOP’s continued majority there is not in doubt. But a pick-up of two Senate seats would also give Republicans effective control in that chamber. Political scientist Dr. Bob Holsworth says Senate redistricting was more favorable to Democrats—so the question is whether the GOP will continue a winning streak that began two years ago.
“The Republicans have had a major enthusiasm advantage over the last couple of years both in Virginia and in the United States. And if they can turn out their voters, Republicans certainly stand a chance of taking the two seats they need,” says Holsworth.
And he adds that both parties are well-funded.
“The Democrats have a shot, I think, at two seats that the Republicans hope to win: one in the Lynchburg to Louisa area and the other perhaps in Loudoun. But the reality is the Republicans have challengers in the Southwest, in Northern Virginia, in the exurban areas of Northern Virginia, in Hampton Roads. So the difficulty for the Democrats is that they are really trying to hold on to 8 or 10 seats that are being targeted very strongly.”
Voter turnout is expected to be low.
–Anne Marie Morgan
Virginia Public Radio 